Patna High Court’s judgment overturning the Bihar government’s attempt to increase reservation quotas for marginalised communities beyond the Supreme Court mandated 50 per cent limit marks a pivotal moment in Indian politics. This verdict not only challenges the Bihar government’s efforts to enhance representation for Other Backward Classes (OBC), Extremely Backward Classes (EBC), Scheduled Castes (SC), and Scheduled Tribes (ST) but also brings to the forefront the on-going debate over the Supreme Court’s 50 per cent ceiling on reservations. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s initiative, which aimed to raise quotas from 50 per cent to 65 per cent in educational institutions and government jobs, was grounded in a caste survey revealing that 65 per cent of Bihar’s population belongs to these underrepresented groups.

The amendment bill, passed with unanimous support, increased quotas for EBCs from 18 per cent to 25 per cent, for OBCs from 12 per cent to 18 per cent, SCs from 16 per cent to 20 per cent, and STs from 1 per cent to 2 per cent, while scrapping the existing 3 per cent quota for OBC women. The court’s decision, however, has significant implications for the social justice agenda and coalition dynamics within the National Democratic Alliance, particularly with the chief minister now aligned with the BJP. The BJP, despite its internal contradictions, had supported the caste survey, showcasing a rare moment of bipartisanship. This support was likely influenced by the Modi government’s own precedent of implementing a 10 per cent quota for Economically Weaker Sections (EWS), which breached the 50 per cent ceiling but was upheld by the Supreme Court.

The opposition, under the banner of the INDIA bloc, now finds itself with a potent issue to rally around. The demand for a nationwide caste census, which advocates proportional reservations based on population, aligns with the bloc’s broader social justice narrative. This move could galvanise marginalised communities, emphasising a representation proportional to their demographic weight. The Patna High Court’s ruling comes at a critical juncture. Mr Nitish Kumar’s long-standing advocacy for greater representation of EBC and Dalit communities will be tested against his loyalty to the NDA. The opposition, meanwhile, sees an opportunity to push for legislative changes to override the 50 per cent reservation cap, a promise already made by the Congress. Beyond the political ramifications, the court’s decision impacts grassroots movements across India.

Dominant caste groups like Marathas, Jats, Patidars, and Gujjars, who have been demanding reservations to offset their declining economic gains from agriculture, might now intensify their agitations. The Bihar chief minister’s initial breach of the 50 per cent ceiling had given these groups hope, but the court’s ruling may lead to increased social tensions as these movements push for a share within the existing OBC quota. As India grapples with these complex dynamics, the path forward is fraught with challenges. Both the ruling and opposition parties must navigate a landscape marked by social anxieties and demands for equitable representation.